K33 Research, a leading cryptocurrency analysis firm, has issued a cautionary outlook for Bitcoin, warning that the asset could slip below the $100,000 mark in September, historically its weakest month. According to Vetle Lunde, Head of Research at K33, a combination of macroeconomic factors, including potential U.S. tariffs and economic data releases, alongside surging leverage in perpetual futures, heightens the risk of sharp liquidations that could drive Bitcoin’s price lower.
Lunde highlighted that Bitcoin’s notional open interest in perpetual futures has reached a two-year high, surpassing 310,000 BTC (approximately $34 billion), with a notable spike of 13,472 BTC over a recent weekend. This rapid buildup, coupled with annualized funding rates jumping from 3% to nearly 11%, signals overly aggressive long positions during a period of price consolidation.
“This leverage surge mirrors patterns seen in the summers of 2023 and 2024, which ended in significant liquidation cascades.”
Lunde noted, emphasizing that the current market setup suggests elevated risks for dip buyers.
Adding to the bearish outlook, September has historically been a challenging month for Bitcoin, often marked by heightened volatility and price corrections. Lunde pointed to macroeconomic uncertainties, including proposed U.S. tariffs and upcoming U.S. economic data, as potential catalysts for increased market turbulence. These factors could exacerbate risk-off sentiment, putting further downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price. K33’s analysis identifies key support levels at $101,000 and $94,000, which could act as critical thresholds to watch in the event of a sell-off.
“The risks of long squeezes in the near term are elevated,”
Lunde warned, advising traders to adopt conservative positioning until excess leverage is cleared from the market.
The report also noted a significant market rotation, with a long-term holder swapping 22,400 BTC for Ethereum via the decentralized exchange Hyperunit, contributing to Ethereum’s recent all-time high above $4,950. This shift has boosted the ETH/BTC ratio above 0.04 for the first time in 2025, showing a potential diversion of capital away from Bitcoin.
While Bitcoin’s long-term outlook remains bullish, driven by institutional adoption and favorable policies under the pro-crypto Trump administration, K33 urges caution in the short term.
“Traders should remain vigilant as market indicators soften and leverage peaks.”
Lunde concluded, pointing to the need for careful risk management in the face of potential volatility.
For more insights, visit K33 Research at www.k33.com. https://k33.com/research
